Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 01 2013

by **Admin** Wed May 01, 2013 7:26 am

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 01 2013

FOMC Meeting -- a major catalyst or non-event?

The EUR/USD finished the day sharply higher, closing up 0.55% at 1.3166. Intra-day the pair traded as high as 1.3186 but was once again unable to take out the 1.3200 level. All eyes will be on the upcoming US session, with both Construction Spending and ISM Manufacturing PMI due out at 14:00 GMT. Following this data, we will get the Federal Reserve Monetary Policy statement at 18:00GMT. However, with all the hype surrounding the upcoming economic data due out of the US, some analysts are saying not to look too much into the release and the effect on the US Dollar might be minimal.

According to Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management, “Given the recent disappointments in economic data, it will be very difficult for the hawks inside the Fed to justify hardening their call for a rate cut. In contrast, the doves will sing louder about the need for maintain the current level of stimulus. However none of these discussions are likely to appear in the FOMC statement.
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FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-05-01 14:00 GMT : USA.ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
2013-05-01 18:00 GMT : USA.Fed Interest Rate Decision (May 1)
2013-05-01 18:00 GMT : USA.Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference
2013-05-01 23:50 GMT : JP.BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

FOREX NEWS :
2013-05-01 03:29 GMT : GBP/USD finishes higher for a fifth straight day, closes April +1.41%
2013-05-01 02:40 GMT : AUD/JPY still forming “pennant” pattern on daily chart
2013-05-01 01:53 GMT : EUR/USD quiet during Asia session, resistance at 1.3200 remains in focus
2013-05-01 01:13 GMT : AUD/USD near highs after China PMI

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3179 LOW 1.31603 BID 1.31643 ASK 1.31649 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 13:27

OUTLOOK SUMMARY :
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Neutral hourly studies point towards further consolidation, with a break of next resistive structure at 1.3185 (R1) is required to spark stronger upside action. In such scenario we would suggest our next initial targets at 1.3213 (R2) and 1.3239 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level is seen at 1.3156 (S1), any penetration below it might activate downside pressure and enable lower target at 1.3120 (S2). Any further market decline would then be limited to 1.3084 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3185, 1.3213, 1.3239
Support Levels: 1.3156, 1.3120, 1.3084

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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.55468 LOW 1.55262 BID 1.55344 ASK 1.55353 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 13:27

OUTLOOK SUMMARY :
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 1.5563 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 1.5590 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.5629 (R3). Downwards scenario: Successful retest of our next support level at 1.5527 (S1) might provide sufficient momentum for the price acceleration towards to interim target at 1.5507 (S2). Final aim for today locates at 1.5481 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5563, 1.5590, 1.5629
Support Levels: 1.5527, 1.5507, 1.5481

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USDJPY :
HIGH 97.465 LOW 97.049 BID 97.276 ASK 97.280 CHANGE -0.14% TIME 08 : 13:28

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 97.42 (R1). Price extension above it is required to validate our next intraday targets at 97.61 (R2) and 97.82 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price manages to overcome our next support barrier at 97.11 (S1), we expect to see further market decline towards to our next target at 96.89 (S2) and then next stop could be found at 96.70 (S3) mark.

Resistance Levels: 97.42, 97.61, 97.82
Support Levels: 97.11, 96.89, 96.70

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