Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 24 2013

by **Admin** Wed Apr 24, 2013 7:32 am

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 24 2013

Spain might get EU deficit target extension

The EU signalized on Tuesday that Spain might be granted two more years to reach the deficit target. Additionally, the President of the European Commission José Manuel Durão Barroso said yesterday that 2013 deficit targets for other EU countries could also be eased. EU sources suggested that the European Commission could allow Spain to have a budget deficit of 6.5% this year and that deadline for it to reach 3% could be extended by two more years. Barroso said that the correction of budgetary imbalances in Greece, Portugal and Spain has been very impressive and that the European Commission is considering extending the deadlines for the correction of excessive deficits also for other EU Member States, as the objective is to combine the adjustment of deficits and debt with growth in the short term.

Yesterday weak German PMI data release (47.9 actual vs. 49.1 estimates) fueled more talk of possible ECB rate cuts in the coming months. Although the EURUSD did close below the 1.3000 level, some analysts found the lack of follow through to the downside impressive and believe the key will be to see how it reacts to data in coming sessions. The main report due out today will be the German IFO which is released at 8:00 GMT. Economic data out of the UK is light in the coming session, with Mortgage Approvals due out at 8:30 GMT. The US session will also be fairly quiet with Durable Goods due out at 12:30 GMT.
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FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-04-24 08:00 GMT | Germany. IFO - Business Climate
2013-04-24 08:30 GMT | UK. BBA Mortgage Approvals
2013-04-24 12:30 GMT | USA. Durable Goods Orders
2013-04-24 20:15 GMT | Canada. BoC Governor Mark Carney Speech

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-04-24 04:26 GMT | EUR/USD pressured by German PMI data, German IFO on tap next
2013-04-24 03:08 GMT | GBP/USD still forming possible “bear flag” on daily chart
2013-04-24 02:25 GMT | AUD/JPY still range bound after Aussie CPI data disappoints
2013-04-24 02:09 GMT | NZD/USD eases below 0.8450

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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30104 LOW 1.29882 BID 1.30053 ASK 1.30059 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 44:38

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the downside recently, turning short-term bias to the negative side. However upwards penetration above the resistance at 1.3012 (R1) would enable bullish forces and might drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.3031 (R2) and 1.3051 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important supportive mark at 1.2987 (S1). Depreciation below it might shift medium-term tendency to the bearish side and validate our next intraday targets at 1.2970 (S2) and 1.2953 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3012, 1.3031, 1.3051
Support Levels: 1.2987, 1.2970, 1.2953

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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52502 LOW 1.52265 BID 1.52483 ASK 1.52491 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 44:38

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Upside formation is limited now to the next resistive barrier at 1.5253 (R1). Clearance here is required to provide a space for a move towards to next target at 1.5267 (R2) and then final aim would be 1.5282 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, any prolonged movement below the support at 1.5225 (S1) might enable downside forces and drive market price towards to supportive means at 1.5211 (S2) and 1.5197 (S3) later on today

Resistance Levels: 1.5253, 1.5267, 1.5282
Support Levels: 1.5225, 1.5211, 1.5197

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USDJPY :
HIGH 99.761 LOW 99.193 BID 99.386 ASK 99.391 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 44:39

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY trapped to the consolidation phase after the upside development. Fresh high at 99.77 (R1) offers a good resistance level. Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets at 100.13 (R2) and 100.48 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, prolonged movement below the initial support level at 99.15 (S1) might trigger protective orders execution and drive market price towards to supportive means at 98.77 (S2) and 98.40 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 99.77, 100.13, 100.48
Support Levels: 99.15, 98.77, 98.40

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