Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 04 2013

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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 04 2013

Post by Admin on Thu Jul 04, 2013 7:27 am

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 04 2013

EUR - Beware of the ECB

Since the last ECB meeting, we have seen more improvements than deterioration in the Eurozone economy. In Germany specifically, consumer spending has been healthy, unemployment rolls have declined, leading to an improvement in business and investor confidence. However the strength was not without areas of weakness. Businesses and investors grew more optimistic about future economic activity but more grim about current activity. Considering that the current performance of the economy is what really matters, the ECB may look beyond everyone's hope for improvement. Also stronger service sector activity in the region's largest economy was offset by a deeper contraction in manufacturing. So as you can see the recovery in the Eurozone is uneven and when combined with a 5% sell-off in the DAX, since the last meeting the ECB has very little to be optimistic about.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/04072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-04 08:00 GMT | EMU. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)
2013-07-04 11:00 GMT | UK. BoE Interest Rate Decision
2013-07-04 11:45 GMT | EMU. ECB Interest Rate Decision
2013-07-04 12:30 GMT | EMU. ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference

FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-04 05:22 GMT | EUR/USD lingers at 1.30, awaits the ECB
2013-07-04 04:59 GMT | NZD/USD flat for the session unable to overcome the 0.78 handle
2013-07-04 04:17 GMT | GBP/USD retraces into 1.5250 post bullish engulfing day
2013-07-04 03:23 GMT | AUD/USD jumps on RBA Lowe's comments


EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30233 LOW 1.29875 BID 1.29937 ASK 1.29943 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08 : 23:05



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Appreciation above the resistance at 1.3015 (R1) might commence new step of the ascending structure. Our intraday targets today are placed at 1.3035 (R2) and 1.3053 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of the downtrend development is seen below the support level at 1.2984 (S1). Weakening below this mark might clear the way towards to immediate supports at 1.2965 (S2) and 1.2945 (S3). ECB interest rate announcement is a key factor today.

Resistance Levels: 1.3015, 1.3035, 1.3053
Support Levels: 1.2984, 1.2965, 1.2945

--------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52831 LOW 1.52513 BID 1.52575 ASK 1.52583 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 23:06



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market remains relatively stable prior BOE interest rate decision, though clearance of next resistance level at 1.5293 (R1) might initiates bullish pressure. Above the local high locates our resistive means at 1.5316 (R2) and 1.5341 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our focus is shifted to the next support level at 1.5238 (S1). Loss here is required to push the price towards to our next interim targets at 1.5213 (S2) en route towards to final support at 1.5186 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 1.5293, 1.5316, 1.5341
Support Levels: 1.5238, 1.5213, 1.5186

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USDJPY :
HIGH 100.091 LOW 99.692 BID 99.847 ASK 99.849 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08 : 23:07



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Possibility of price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 100.15 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest our interim target at 100.42 (R2) and then mark at 100.70 (R3) acts as last resistive measure for today. Downwards scenario: Negative developments might be settled below the important support level at 99.63 (S1). Any price action below it would then be targeting support at 99.36 (S2) and final target could be exposed at 99.09 (S3) mark.

Resistance Levels: 100.15, 100.42, 100.70
Support Levels: 99.63, 99.36, 99.09

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

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