Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 02 2013

by **Admin** Thu May 02, 2013 8:11 am

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 02 2013

Will the ECB Kill the EUR Rally?

The euro has performed extremely well leading up to Thursday's European Central Bank monetary policy announcement. In fact, it may be hard for some investors to believe that the majority of economists are looking for the ECB to cut interest rates by 25bp. Traditionally, expectations for easier monetary policy is negative for a currency but in the case of the euro, since the central bank started dropping hints about the potential for lower rates and economic data confirmed the need for more stimulus, the euro appreciated in value, rising to its highest level against the U.S. dollar in 2 months today.

The European Central Bank has done a great job of setting expectations for this month's monetary policy meeting. They are known for preparing the market for any upcoming changes in policy with the hopes of minimizing volatility when the actual change is made. Since the last meeting, we have heard consistently cautious comments from policymakers who all sound as if they are warming to idea of more stimulus if data warrants it and it certainly does given the widespread weakness in German business, consumer and investor confidence along with the decline in manufacturing and service activity. - https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/02052013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-05-02 11:45 GMT | EU.ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr 2)
2013-05-02 12:30 GMT | USA.Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 26)
2013-05-02 12:30 GMT | USA.Trade Balance (Mar)
2013-05-02 23:30 GMT | AUS.AiG Performance of Services Index (Apr)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-05-02 03:00 GMT | GBP/USD - Another day of gains, but unable to take out 1.5600 resistance
2013-05-02 02:23 GMT | AUD/USD continues to lose ground in Asia session
2013-05-02 00:43 GMT | EUR/USD forms a false break at 1.32
2013-05-02 00:08 GMT | USD/JPY slips to session lows post-BoJ minutes

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31898 LOW 1.31662 BID 1.31709 ASK 1.31713 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08 : 12:16

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Next barrier on the upside lie at 1.3185 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.3213 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.3239 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, successful retest of our next support level at 1.3156 (S1) might provide sufficient momentum for the price acceleration towards the interim target at 1.3120 (S2). Final aim for today locates at 1.3084 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3185, 1.3213, 1.3239
Support Levels: 1.3156, 1.3120, 1.3084

GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.55724 LOW 1.55409 BID 1.55475 ASK 1.55483 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 12:17

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.5573 (R1). Price extension above it is required to validate our next intraday targets at 1.5598 (R2) and 1.5629 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price manages to overcome our next support barrier at 1.5527 (S1), we expect to see further market decline towards to our next target at 1.5507 (S2) and then next stop could be found at 1.5481 (S3) mark.

Resistance Levels: 1.5573, 1.5598, 1.5629
Support Levels: 1.5527, 1.5507, 1.5481

USDJPY :
HIGH 97.422 LOW 97.088 BID 97.191 ASK 97.195 CHANGE -0.21% TIME 08 : 12:18

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Pair has settled sideways formation on the hourly timeframe. However potential to move higher is seen above the resistance level at 97.42 (R1) mark. Loss here would suggest next intraday targets at 97.61 (R2) and 97.82 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, our next support level aligns at 97.11 (S1) and possible price regress below it might encounter downside rally. In such scenario we would suggest next intraday targets to be placed at 96.89 (S2) and 96.70 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 97.42, 97.61, 97.82
Support Levels: 97.11, 96.89, 96.70

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex ECN Broker | Forex Trading Blog | Forex Software | FXCC )